Day by day, the confirmed case of coronavirus is increasing. Coronavirus spreads in 155 countries, makes several countries go into lockdown status. But Michael Levitt has a different perspective. He said that most people are simply naturally immune. Michael Levitt is a biophysicist and a professor that received the 2013 Nobel Prize in Chemistry for “the development of multiscale models for complex chemical systems”.
Lately, coronavirus is growing faster outside China. In contrast, Wuhan already closes its last temporary-hospital for coronavirus, because there have been no cases again lately. Surprisingly, Levitt has predicted that with exponential growth models. Reported by Catalist, Levitt explained his calculation.
“I simply crunched the numbers. I decided to take a deeper look at the numbers in the hope of reaching some conclusion. The rate of infection of the virus in the Hubei province increased by 30% each day — that is a scary statistic. I am not an influenza expert but I can analyze numbers and that is exponential growth.” Levitt explained.
Levitt started to look at the statistic. On February 1, Hubei Province had 1,800 new cases each day and within six days the numbers had reached 4,700. But on February 7, something changed. It was that the number of new infections started to drop linearly and did not stop. A week later, the same thing happened with the number of deaths.
“This dramatic change in the curve marked the median point and enabled better prediction of when the pandemic will end. Based on that, I concluded that the situation in all of China will improve within two weeks. And, indeed, now there are very few new infection cases.” Levitt said. "The fact that the infection rate is slowing down means the end of the coronavirus is near."
Levitt also analyzed how the coronavirus spreads at the Diamond Princess cruise ship. He said it was a perfect place for the virus to infect all passengers. The cruise ship is a close-space, had a central air conditioning and heating system, and communal dining rooms.
“Those are extremely comfortable conditions for the virus and still, only 20% were infected,” said Levitt. Based on the Diamond Princess cruise ship, Levitt explains that the infection rate of coronavirus is pretty similar to common flu.
Therefore, Levitt’s conclusion was that most people are simply naturally immune. Of course, we need to be alert with coronavirus. But the main key is these two: keep calm and stay healthy! Later on, if it’s already safe to travel around the world, you can make a travel plan at our app, WaktuIn. You can see our interesting itineraries, manage your travel budget and expenses, navigate the locations through our maps, invite your friends and have a group chat! Download WaktuIn for Android user here or iOS here.